Who Will Be the Global Superpower in the 22nd Century?
Humankind always thirsts for power, and global dominance is one of them. From ancient history to modern civilization, every country tries to destroy one another for global dominance. For modern civilization, in the 20th century, the world was devastated by some of the largest wars in history. However, Europe remained at the center of economic, military, cultural, and diplomatic power. The American dollar was and still is the world's global currency, and the rise of America was officially begun. In 100 years, the USA went from second-rate power to the 21st century's sole superpower. American dominance in cultural, economic, military, and technological fields is so profound that the USA may be the hyperpower of the 21st century.
Nevertheless, Russia still challenges America at every step, and the recent rise of China has made it a close competitor of the United States. Then what will happen in the next 100 years? Who will be the world's superpower for the next 22nd century?
A nation that can project its cultural, economic, diplomatic, technological, and military power worldwide is a superpower. During the Cold War (1947–1991), two superpowers competed to shape the world in their imaginations: the United States and the Soviet Union. However, in the end, American cultural, economic, diplomatic, technological, and military power outstripped the Soviet Union's technology and military power and sped up the collapse of the Communist regime. Today, only the United States remains a superpower, despite competition.
In the 21st century, in 2022, Russia and China will be the closest competitors to the United States. Nevertheless, both nations still struggle to fulfill several qualities necessary to be superpowers. Russia and China cannot project their military power very far from their borders and struggle to make their cultures relevant to people worldwide. China's most outstanding economy might rival that of the United States, while Russia's has fallen behind because of a lack of a diversified economy and overdependence on fossil fuels. Nevertheless, Russia has been the closest competitor in the technology sector for decades. They are neck and neck, sometimes with Russia surpassing the USA. China's miraculous rise in recent years also makes it worthy of being a competitor. Though they are neck to neck in technological breakthroughs, the United States can translate these technological breakthroughs into consumer products. Russia still produces some of the world's finest engineers and scientists but struggles to keep those brilliant minds from immigrating out of the country.
In the next 100 years, at least one thing is clear: competition is getting tighter and tighter. However, predicting the next 100 years is far more complicated than predicting who would be the world's superpower in the 21st century (2001-2100) while looking ahead from the 20th century (1901-2000). That is because our pace of technological breakthroughs has accelerated since then, and the rate of technological breakthroughs has increased exponentially. These technological breakthroughs are true global game changers: the wheel, gunpowder, the steam engine, space flight, the internet, smartphones, and 3D printing. In the past, population and economic trends made it easy to predict future global power.
Nevertheless, in the next 100 years, it is pretty clear that technology will have the most significant influence on who will be supreme. The United States, Russia, and China are the leaders in artificial intelligence. It is like one of those nations that will be the world's technological superpower in the 22nd century. However, the United States has several advantages to becoming the 22nd century's top dog over these nations, such as the USA's still being the global leader in turning technological breakthroughs into consumer products and having had significant military influence worldwide since the cold war.
Now, what keeps China and Russia from falling behind? China significantly lacks in the innovation sector because it does not have a diverse population, with 90% of the population being native Han Chinese. China may be the world's oldest continuously existing culture, but the modern generation does not seem particularly interested in ancient cultures. If China wishes to rise to superpower status in the 22nd century, it will have to significantly increase its diversity and the appeal of its culture to a global audience. Moreover, in a nation led by the Chinese Communist Party, a lack of essential democracy and rights can also be a potential cause for the derailment of the goal of becoming the next superpower. Again, China will face another severe problem in the future. China is now the most populous country in the world. However, some experts say that by the end of the 21st century, China's population will shrink by as much as 300 million to 400 million because of the natural birth rate decline. In the 20th century, China's population was a ticking time bomb, but the 1970s one-child policy helped China to control its population a bit.
Nevertheless, it also raises other problems: China now has the fastest-aging population. There are fewer young workers to replace the retiring ones, thus creating a shortage in social security. However, China's government is encouraging people to have more than one child but has had no success. Furthermore, language can be another barrier for China to become a superpower. Its language is tough to learn and must compete against English, which has the advantage of being simple and is already the world's default language. That is why English is compulsory in schools worldwide, including in China. But Mandarin is mandatory in international schools and is not happening anytime soon.
As for Russia, the gap between them is getting narrower as we speak. Recent declarations of war against Ukraine and their diplomatic strategies have shaken European countries, including the United States. After the cold war in 1991 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia might have fallen behind, but now this is not the case anymore. In the coming year, Russia will have more advantages in being the sole superpower of the globe. During the invasion of Ukraine, Russia showed its might to the world. Russia always has a disadvantage geographically. Almost one-third of Russia remains covered with ice most months. Russia's most significant region, Siberia, has freezing temperatures as low as -70 °C and is not habitable for most of the year. Again, Siberia has Russia's coastline but remains frozen in thick ice almost all the time. Only a few ports remain open during the winter. This keeps Russia from spreading its wings around the world.
Nevertheless, global warming is melting the ice worldwide, including in Russia. Experts say that by the end of this 21st century if humankind keeps this carbon emission at this rate, most of the area of Russia will be available to farm and be habitable. Most of the coastline will be usable for a longer period of time. This will be a game changer for Russia, as it can add more people, use its coastline for strategic viewpoints, and spread its wings worldwide. However, Russia's language is as challenging as China's, and it must increase its appeal to a global audience.
Like Russia and China, the United States has to overcome some challenges in the coming years, such as the difference between the poor and the rich, the mentality of being superior to others, racial discrimination, and increasing domestic terrorism. There are some severe problems in the United States. If these problems are not handled properly, the United States will fall as a superpower.
Despite all the reasons, predicting the next 100 years is tough when the competition is so tight. As it is now, the possibility of the United States remaining a superpower is relatively high. However, who knows what will happen in the next few years? As always, time will tell.
